Europe faces supply tightness this winter under severe conditions: Entso-e

20171129

ower generation margins this winter could be tight in the UK, France, Belgium, Poland and Italy under severe conditions, but the risk of actual shortages is low, European transmission system operator group Entso-e said Wednesday in its Winter 2017/18 Outlook. Tightness, not shortages possible GB, FR, BE, PO, IT most at risk 16 GW of thermal plant closed In future, winter adequacy risks are set to rise because of the decline in conventional generation and the rise of intermittent renewables, it added, noting the closure of 16 GW of dispatchable plant across Europe in 2017 alone. Under normal conditions there was no risk to Europe"s security of electricity supply this winter, but in the event of cold spells and low generation availability, adequacy risks could arise in several countries during the second week of January, the report said. "Under severe conditions, margins are indeed expected to be tight in Great Britain, France, Belgium, Poland and Italy. However, the risk of not having enough generation capacity to cover demand is contained in probability," it said. This year Entso-e has "stress tested" the European power system by modelling a 1-in-20 year cold wave with very low wind generation, up from 1-in-10 year analyses done in previous outlooks. This follows last winter"s January cold snap price spikes at a time of low French nuclear availability and rising demand. Under a 1-in-20 year combination of increasing demand and lower generation availability, a majority of European countries, including the UK, France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden and Finland, would need to import electricity to ensure adequacy, the report showed. Belgium, Finland, France and Italy (Central-Northern) "could face adequacy issues in Weeks 2 and 3 in 2018," while in Finland, Weeks 1 to 7 are at risk. Under these severe conditions, interconnections from Spain, Ireland, Sardinia, Central-Southern Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Romania become congested in Weeks 2 and 3. "Due to this, available spare generation capacity and demand-side response from these regions and regions connected to them are not accessible for the rest of Europe," it said. Severe pinch points are identified in week two for Belgium, France, Finland and Central-Northern Italy, where deficits in supply exceed the ability to import. On physical market conditions heading into winter 2017/18, hydro reservoir levels are generally back to historical averages except in Italy and Spain, where levels are close to historical lows, Entso-e said. "In France and Switzerland, after dropping to historical low values at the beginning of the year due to the cold spell, the hydro reservoir levels have recovered near to average values. In Austria, the October 2017 level is higher than the historical average after reaching the lowest situation last winter," it said. In France, nuclear availability is back to average compared to very low availability last year. French margins are tighter than two years ago however, due to the closure of more than 4 GW of oil-fired capacity in 2017. As demand in France is sensitive to temperature, the risk to supply adequacy "is expected under low temperatures," with analysis showing a 3.5% probability of adequacy risk on a typical Wednesday evening in the second week of January 2018. French system operator RTE"s own analysis shows a 2% probability of adequacy risk in Week 2, as it assumes that the intense cold waves of 1985 and 1987 are less likely to happen in future, Entso-e said. The report charts the continued decline in conventional generation versus the rise in wind and solar generation. Year-on-year, conventional capacity is down 16 GW while renewables" capacity is up by the same amount, it said. As renewable energy capacity "cannot replace the equivalent capacity of dispatchable generation one to one," the risks of adequacy tensions may appear more often in future, Entso-e said. Although European gas-fired capacity fell over the last 12 months, over a two-year view installed gas plant had increased by around 3 GW, it noted. Over the same period some 10.6 GW of coal plant and nearly 16 GW of other thermal plant had closed.

Ист.: Platts, Ссылка: https://www.platts.com/latest-...
Темы:Энергетика,

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